Tuesday, November 14, 2017

MSM Even Admits There's an Education Bubble

When NBC admits there's an education bubble then you know American students are really fucked.

2 comments:

bluegreenguitar said...

"There are too many four-year colleges serving too many students, and too few institutions with a greater focus on vocational education and training," the researchers said.

It seems to me that people have been pushing the somewhat exclusively the 4-year college degree thing for a while without mentioning vocation training for many solid careers. It seems surprising (for example) whenever I hear a politician/anybody talking about providing free college to everyone but not mentioning "vocational" training at all.

I agree that for many careers, a bachelor's degree proves very useful.

On the other hand, it's plain to see that other avenues of training provide higher ROI for other career choices. An apprenticeship or get specific training for that skillset would probably be better.

And some careers could benefit from both a 2-4 year degree and training for specific skills outside of the current university system.

Pushing everyone in society to go college doesn't make much economic sense overall. And people who have a career, with or without a college degree, should be proud of their hard work. In other words, having a solid job/skillset doesn't mean you had to go college. Even though it may seem like parts of society are suggesting it, there's no shame in not going to college, and one should be proud of one's career irrespective of educational background.

Ultimately, all you have to do is look at BLS.gov statistics and run the math. For example, what's the prediction for the number of carpenters until 2026? Check out the info at https://www.bls.gov/ooh/construction-and-extraction/carpenters.htm . Of course, I'm assuming these stats are based somewhat on economic conditions, so if there was a recession, the numbers might not be accurate.

2016 Median Pay $43,600 per year $20.96 per hour
Typical Entry-Level Education High school diploma or equivalent
Work Experience in a Related Occupation None
On-the-job Training Apprenticeship
Number of Jobs, 2016 1,025,600
Job Outlook, 2016-26 8% (As fast as average)
Employment Change, 2016-26 87,000

Anyways, then you just figure out how many vocational school opportunities there are for carpentry (or if you even need them as opposed to an apprenticeship).

An economist can just go through the whole database, find the jobs requiring a 4-year degree, and figure out how many incoming spots at 4-year colleges exist versus job prospects. Then do the same with "vocational" jobs - figure out the job prospects for vocational work and how many spots exist for incoming vocational schools (if necessary).

Then society at large can support 2-4 year colleges, vocational schooling and training with more accurate ratios based on predicted job prospects.

That's my impression at the moment, at least.

David Reynolds said...

Way to be Johnny-come-lately NBC!

Those of us who have been in the know have known that there has been an education bubble for at least the past 15 years. Maybe a little more. We have been telling kids for the past 4-5 decades that they must go to college in order to be a success. In doing so, we have neglected the trades that produce the actual goods and services that society needs and wants in order for it to survive.

Right now we have a glut of young people with worthless educations who can't even operate a hammer or turn a wrench. These same people look down on those who never went to college, yet went on to learn how to be auto mechanics instead. These same people who look down on the "lowly" auto mechanic is going to pay that person $75/hour plus parts when their cars break down.

For the past 10 years at least, it has become less and less worth it financially to go to college anymore. Especially if you are going to major in a worthless liberal art. Even if one is going to major in a STEM, it is becoming less and less worth it. What is the use in getting a job that pays $70k per year when you have to go into mortgage level student loan debt in order to get the education?